BacktestFolio · Glossary
Percentile
In plain language
If the P10 of portfolio value at 20 years is €180,000, it means that in the 10% worst scenarios you would end up with less than €180,000. The Monte Carlo projection cone shows these percentiles to give you a realistic picture of the range of possible outcomes.
Technical definition
Value below which a given percentage of simulated scenarios or historical observations falls. The 50th percentile (median) is the typical scenario; P5 and P95 delimit the 5% worst and 5% best outcomes respectively.