BacktestFolio · Glossary
Success Rate
In plain language
If in 920 out of 1,000 historical scenarios the portfolio does not run out before the chosen duration, the success rate is 92%. It does not mean there is a 92% chance things will go well — the future differs from the past — but it shows how historically sustainable that strategy has been.
Technical definition
Percentage of historical scenarios or Monte Carlo simulations in which the portfolio does not run out of money before the end of the chosen horizon with the configured withdrawal rate. Includes variants weighted by survival probability (mortality adjustment).