BacktestFolio · Glossary
Projection Cone
In plain language
The cone shows that the further you look into the future, the greater the uncertainty: bands widen because small return differences compound over time. The centre of the cone is the median scenario — not a certain prediction, but the most probable starting point.
Technical definition
Visual representation of the distribution of simulated future scenarios around the median trajectory. The bands widen over time (cone shape) showing Monte Carlo percentile bands (typically P10–P90 or P5–P95).